7 Scratch-Off Myths Debunked: What the Data Actually Shows
Walk into any convenience store and you’ll hear scratch-off “wisdom” from the person next to you in line. Buy from lucky stores. New rolls are better. Higher-priced tickets always win more. The lottery is rigged.
We track 2,700+ scratch-off games across 43 states with daily data updates. Here’s what the numbers actually say about the most common scratch-off myths — and which ones have a grain of truth.
Last updated: May 2026 · Based on analysis of real lottery data from official state websites
Myth #1: “Buy From Stores That Had Recent Winners”
The Claim
Certain stores are “lucky.” If a store just sold a big winner, it’s more likely to sell another one soon.
The Reality: False
Scratch-off tickets are distributed randomly to retailers. A store that just sold a $1 million winner has exactly the same probability of selling another winner as any other store. The winning ticket was determined at the printing facility — not at the point of sale.
What creates the illusion: stores that sell more tickets overall will naturally produce more winners. A busy gas station on a highway sells 10× more tickets than a quiet rural shop, so it produces 10× more winners. That’s volume, not luck.
What to do instead: Ignore store “luck.” Focus on which game has the best remaining value, not which store sells it. A depleted game is a bad buy regardless of where you purchase it.
Myth #2: “New Rolls Are Better — Ask for a Fresh Roll”
The Claim
The first tickets in a new roll have better odds. Ask the clerk to start a fresh roll for you.
The Reality: Mostly False (with a nuance)
Prizes are distributed randomly throughout a roll. There’s no pattern that puts winners at the beginning, middle, or end. Lottery commissions use algorithms to ensure prizes are spread across the entire print run — not clustered in any predictable location.
The nuance: While position within a roll doesn’t matter, the age of a game does. A brand-new game (just launched) has all its prizes intact — including all top prizes. An older game may have had top prizes claimed, reducing its value. This isn’t about “new rolls” — it’s about new games.
What to do instead: Don’t ask for new rolls. Instead, check if the game itself is new (all prizes intact) or old (top prizes potentially claimed). Our “Newest” tab on every state page shows recently launched games.
Myth #3: “Higher-Priced Tickets Always Have Better Odds”
The Claim
A $30 ticket is always a better buy than a $5 ticket because expensive tickets have better odds and higher payouts.
The Reality: Generally True for Odds, But Not Always for Value
Our data across 2,700+ games confirms that higher-priced tickets do tend to have better overall odds:
| Price Tier | Average Overall Odds | Average ROI |
|---|---|---|
| $1 tickets | ~1 in 4.8 | -38% |
| $5 tickets | ~1 in 4.2 | -30% |
| $10 tickets | ~1 in 3.7 | -27% |
| $20 tickets | ~1 in 3.4 | -24% |
| $30 tickets | ~1 in 3.1 | -21% |
| $50 tickets | ~1 in 2.8 | -19% |
However: The best individual game at a lower price point often beats the worst game at a higher price point. A top-performing $5 game at -26% ROI is better value than a depleted $20 game at -29% ROI.
What to do instead: Don’t blindly buy expensive tickets. Compare specific games by ROI, not just price. Sometimes two cheaper tickets beat one expensive one.
Myth #4: “The Lottery Is Rigged”
The Claim
State lotteries manipulate results, don’t actually pay out advertised prizes, or change odds after printing.
The Reality: False
State lotteries are among the most heavily regulated gambling operations in the country. Every game’s prize structure is:
- Filed with the state gaming commission before printing
- Audited by independent third parties
- Subject to public records laws (which is how we get our data)
- Legally required to pay out all advertised prizes
What IS true: the house always has an edge. Lotteries are designed to return 60–75% of ticket sales as prizes and keep 25–40% for state programs. This isn’t “rigging” — it’s the published, legal business model. Every ticket you buy has a negative expected value by design (with rare exceptions when prize depletion patterns create temporary positive-EV situations).
What to do instead: Accept that the lottery has a built-in house edge. Your goal isn’t to “beat the system” — it’s to find the games where that edge is smallest. That’s exactly what ROI measures.
Myth #5: “If a Game Hasn’t Had a Big Winner in a While, It’s Due”
The Claim
Games that haven’t paid out a top prize recently are “overdue” and more likely to hit soon. This is sometimes called the “gambler’s fallacy.”
The Reality: False (but there’s a data-based version that works)
Each ticket is an independent event. The fact that no one has won the top prize in 3 months doesn’t make the next ticket more likely to win. Probability doesn’t have memory.
The data-based version: While individual tickets aren’t “due,” a game with top prizes still remaining does have a mathematically higher expected value than one where they’ve been claimed. This isn’t about being “due” — it’s about the prize pool still containing high-value prizes. The distinction matters:
- ❌ “This game is due for a big winner” (gambler’s fallacy)
- ✅ “This game still has its top prizes, so its expected value is higher” (math)
What to do instead: Don’t chase “due” games. Instead, check how many top prizes remain. A game with 3 of 3 top prizes intact has higher EV than one with 1 of 3 remaining — not because it’s “due,” but because the prize pool is richer.
Myth #6: “Scratch-Off Systems and Strategies Guarantee Wins”
The Claim
Various “systems” claim to guarantee scratch-off wins — buy every Nth ticket, only buy at certain times, use specific scratching patterns, etc.
The Reality: No System Guarantees Wins
No scratching pattern, purchase timing, or ticket selection method can change the predetermined outcome of a scratch-off ticket. The result is set at the printing facility. How you scratch it, when you buy it, or which ticket in the roll you choose doesn’t matter.
What IS real: Data-driven game selection. You can’t change the outcome of a specific ticket, but you can choose to buy tickets from games with better remaining value. This isn’t a “system” — it’s informed decision-making. The difference:
- ❌ “Buy the 3rd ticket in every roll” (superstition)
- ❌ “Only buy on Tuesdays” (superstition)
- ✅ “Buy from games with the highest remaining ROI” (data)
- ✅ “Avoid games where all top prizes are claimed” (data)
What to do instead: Skip the systems. Use data. Check which games have the best current value based on remaining prizes — that’s the only edge available to scratch-off players.
Myth #7: “You Should Always Buy the Newest Game Available”
The Claim
New games are always the best buy because all prizes are intact.
The Reality: Partially True — But Not Always the Best Strategy
New games DO start with all prizes intact, which means their expected value reflects the full prize structure as designed. This is a real advantage over older games that may have lost top prizes.
However: Not all new games are created equal. A new game designed with a -35% ROI is still worse than an older game sitting at -20% ROI with top prizes intact. The starting ROI varies significantly by game design:
- Some new games launch at -18% to -22% ROI (good value)
- Others launch at -35% to -45% ROI (poor value from day one)
Additionally, some older games actually improve in value over time. When lower-tier prizes (break-even amounts) are claimed faster than high-value prizes, the remaining ticket pool becomes relatively richer in big prizes. This is how games occasionally reach positive ROI — not because they’re new, but because their prize depletion pattern favored the remaining tickets.
What to do instead: New games are a good default choice, but always compare their ROI to existing games. An older game with strong remaining value can be a better buy than a mediocre new release.
The Bottom Line
Most scratch-off “wisdom” is superstition. The only real edge available to players is information — knowing which games have the best remaining value based on current prize data. Here’s what actually works:
| Doesn’t Work (Superstition) | Does Work (Data) |
|---|---|
| Buying from “lucky” stores | Checking remaining prizes before buying |
| Asking for new rolls | Choosing games with top prizes still intact |
| Buying only expensive tickets | Comparing ROI across all price points |
| Waiting for games to be “due” | Monitoring prize depletion patterns |
| Following scratching “systems” | Using data to select the best available game |
We update our data daily across 43 states. Visit your state’s page to see current game values, or read The Math of Scratchers to understand exactly how we calculate value.
Related Resources
- The Math of Scratchers: Odds vs. EV vs. ROI Explained
- What Happens When All Top Prizes Are Claimed
- Why 2× $5 Beats 1× $10
- Our Methodology
- National Scratchers Report — April 2026
Disclaimer: This information is provided for educational purposes only. All data is sourced from official state lottery websites and is updated regularly, but we cannot guarantee 100% accuracy. Lottery games are games of chance, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please play responsibly and never spend more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.