Methodology

ScratchersParadise uses data-driven analytics to help you understand scratch-off ticket values. This page explains exactly how we collect data, compute expected values, and track changes over time. Every number on our site is derived from the formulas described below.

Data Collection

Sources

ScratchersParadise collects prize data directly from official state lottery websites. Each state publishes remaining prize information for active scratch-off games, including the number of unclaimed prizes at each tier and the total prizes originally available.

Scraping Frequency

Our automated system scrapes each state's lottery website once per day. Daily scraping captures prize changes as they occur — when a prize is claimed and the lottery commission updates their records, our next scrape reflects the new remaining count.

Tracking Method

For each game, we record a daily snapshot containing:

Remaining prizes at every tier (e.g., $1, $5, $50, $500, $100,000)
Total prizes originally printed at each tier
Overall odds of winning any prize
Top prize amount and remaining count
Ticket price

By comparing consecutive daily snapshots, we compute how many prizes were claimed each day, which tiers are depleting fastest, and how the game's expected value changes over time.

Note: State lottery commissions update their websites at varying frequencies. Some update daily, others every few days. Our system handles gaps gracefully — when a day's data is unavailable, we compare the next available pair of snapshots.

Expected Value (EV) Formula

Formula

EV = Σ (prize_amount × remaining_prizes / estimated_tickets_remaining)

Variable Definitions

EV: Expected Value — the average dollar amount you would receive per ticket if you could buy every remaining ticket. Represents the statistical "fair value" of a single ticket.
prize_amount: The dollar value of a specific prize tier (e.g., $5, $100, $50,000).
remaining_prizes: The number of unclaimed prizes still available at that tier, as reported by the state lottery.
estimated_tickets_remaining: The estimated number of unsold tickets still in circulation. Derived from the total tickets printed minus tickets already sold (inferred from prize claim patterns).

Worked Example

Consider a $20 scratch-off ticket with the following remaining prize data:

Prize Tier	Remaining Prizes	Prize Amount
Top Prize	3	$500,000
Second Prize	8	$10,000
Third Prize	45	$1,000
Fourth Prize	500	$100
Fifth Prize	12,000	$20

Estimated tickets remaining: 1,500,000

Step-by-Step Calculation

Top Prize contribution: $500,000 × 3 / 1,500,000 = $1.00

Second Prize contribution: $10,000 × 8 / 1,500,000 = $0.053

Third Prize contribution: $1,000 × 45 / 1,500,000 = $0.030

Fourth Prize contribution: $100 × 500 / 1,500,000 = $0.033

Fifth Prize contribution: $20 × 12,000 / 1,500,000 = $0.160

Total EV: $1.00 + $0.053 + $0.030 + $0.033 + $0.160 = $1.276

The expected value of this $20 ticket is $1.276 per ticket. This means that, on average, each remaining ticket returns $1.276 in prize value.

Note: This simplified example uses only 5 tiers for clarity. Real scratch-off games typically have 8-15 prize tiers. The calculation is the same — sum the contribution from every tier.

Return on Investment (ROI) Formula

Formula

ROI = (EV / ticket_price - 1) × 100%

Relationship to EV

ROI expresses the expected value as a percentage of the ticket price. It answers the question: "For every dollar I spend, how much do I expect to get back (or lose)?"

ROI = 0% means you expect to break even (EV equals ticket price)
ROI = -50% means you expect to lose half your money (EV is half the ticket price)
ROI > 0% means the ticket has positive expected value (rare, but possible as prizes deplete)

Derivation from EV Example

Using the same $20 ticket from the EV example above, where we calculated EV = $1.276:

Substitute values: ROI = ($1.276 / $20.00 - 1) × 100%

Divide: ROI = (0.0638 - 1) × 100%

Subtract: ROI = -0.9362 × 100%

Result: ROI = -93.62%

An ROI of -93.62% means that for every $20 spent, you expect to receive $1.276 back on average — a loss of $18.724 per ticket. This is typical for scratch-off games, where the house edge ensures the lottery retains a significant portion of ticket sales.

Interpreting ROI Values

ROI Range	Interpretation
-80% to -100%	Very poor value — typical for games with few remaining prizes
-50% to -80%	Below average — most scratch-off games fall in this range
-20% to -50%	Above average — better relative value compared to other games
-20% to 0%	Good value — approaching break-even
> 0%	Positive EV — statistically favorable (very rare)

Note: ROI changes over time as prizes are claimed. When high-value prizes are claimed, EV decreases and ROI becomes more negative. When low-value prizes are claimed disproportionately, the remaining ticket pool has relatively more high-value prizes, improving ROI.

Daily Value Claimed

Formula

DVC = Σ max(0, prev_remaining - curr_remaining) × prize_amount

How It Works

Daily Value Claimed (DVC) measures the total dollar amount of prizes claimed in a single day for a game. We compute it by comparing two consecutive daily snapshots:

For each prize tier, calculate the difference in remaining prizes between yesterday and today
If remaining prizes decreased, multiply the decrease by the tier's prize amount to get the value claimed at that tier
If remaining prizes increased (data correction by the lottery commission), treat the delta as zero
Sum the value claimed across all tiers to get the total DVC

Per-Tier Delta Computation

Using the same $20 ticket example, suppose between Day 1 and Day 2 the following changes occurred:

Prize Tier	Day 1 Remaining	Day 2 Remaining	Delta	Value Claimed
$500,000	3	3	0	$0
$10,000	8	7	1	$10,000
$1,000	45	42	3	$3,000
$100	500	488	12	$1,200
$20	12,000	11,850	150	$3,000

Summation

$500,000 tier: max(0, 3 - 3) × $500,000 = $0

$10,000 tier: max(0, 8 - 7) × $10,000 = $10,000

$1,000 tier: max(0, 45 - 42) × $1,000 = $3,000

$100 tier: max(0, 500 - 488) × $100 = $1,200

$20 tier: max(0, 12,000 - 11,850) × $20 = $3,000

Total DVC: $0 + $10,000 + $3,000 + $1,200 + $3,000 = $17,200

On this day, $17,200 in prizes were claimed across all tiers for this game. This metric helps identify which games are seeing the most activity and how quickly the prize pool is being depleted.

Note: The max(0, ...) in the formula ensures we never report negative claims. Occasionally, a lottery commission corrects their data (e.g., adding prizes back), which would show as an increase in remaining count. We treat these corrections as zero claims rather than negative values.

Top Prize Depletion Events

What Is a Depletion Event?

A top prize depletion event occurs when one or more of a game's highest-value prizes are claimed. Because top prizes contribute significantly to a game's expected value, their removal causes a measurable drop in EV and ROI.

Before and After Example

Using our $20 ticket example with 1,500,000 estimated tickets remaining, let's see what happens when one $500,000 top prize is claimed (remaining drops from 3 to 2):

Before Depletion

Prize Tier	Remaining	EV Contribution
$500,000	3	$1.000
$10,000	8	$0.053
$1,000	45	$0.030
$100	500	$0.033
$20	12,000	$0.160
Total EV		$1.276

After Depletion (1 top prize claimed)

Prize Tier	Remaining	EV Contribution
$500,000	2	$0.667
$10,000	8	$0.053
$1,000	45	$0.030
$100	500	$0.033
$20	12,000	$0.160
Total EV		$0.943

Percentage Change

EV Change: ($0.943 - $1.276) / $1.276 × 100% = -26.1%

ROI Before: ($1.276 / $20 - 1) × 100% = -93.62%

ROI After: ($0.943 / $20 - 1) × 100% = -95.29%

A single top prize claim caused EV to drop by 26.1% (from $1.276 to $0.943). The ROI worsened from -93.62% to -95.29%. This demonstrates why top prize depletion events are significant — they represent the largest single-event impact on a game's value.

Why This Matters

ScratchersParadise tracks depletion events and highlights them on game charts. When you see a sharp drop in EV on a game's history chart, it typically corresponds to a top prize being claimed. Games with all top prizes already claimed have significantly lower expected values than games with top prizes still available.

Note: The impact of a depletion event depends on the ratio of the top prize to the total prize pool. A $1,000,000 top prize on a $30 ticket with 2,000,000 tickets remaining contributes $0.50 per ticket to EV — losing one of those prizes has a much larger impact than losing a $50,000 prize on the same game.